Predicts 2018, LED by the area of the semiconductor material will be increased to four times that of 2012, earnings will be peaking at $17 billion. Although sales will peak around 2019, but influenced by the following two factors, estimated after gradually to reduce. First, because the amount of light emitted at a single LED increased dramatically, so you need to decrease in the number of leds. Second, compared with today's technology, LED product life of life greatly extended, without having to replace once or twice a year, 10 years to replace one. This will make the replacement LED market sharply and permanently.
At present, the LED on the general lighting is not yet universal, but by 2018, more than 50% of the lamp holder will support the LED, the lamps and lanterns that sells on the market will also have more than 80% for LED lights. However, the pretreatment using LED production equipment market is short of the size of the previous two years. With $2010 in 1.9 billion and $2011 in 1.7 billion, compared to the size of the market size of $2012 in 600 million. These enterprises to invest in the second half of 2013, to 2014, the LED will achieve obvious (but limited) production equipment industry growth. But it will also become the LED industry last massive investment. Later, the size of the market will continue to shrink, be basic on redemption (change) needs to maintain the market.
In the past, the LED industry has always been in accordance with the requirements of the LED, exposure to the standard equipment and etching equipment modification, just do the adjustment, to be used after installation. In 2009, for different process using the same equipment LED enterprises, with the assistance of a professional manufacturer of LED equipment. Interesting is, with established semiconductor equipment companies who wasn't involved in the market.
In the purchase of production equipment, in order to decrease the cost of equipment to take up (COO), part of the corporate investment is high performance equipment reliability and delicate homogeneity. On the other hand, also has the enterprise intends to reduce equipment investment, by buying the cheapest equipment, minimize the manufacturing cost. But from now, most companies, including most of the Chinese enterprises) have begun to choose the former.
In the next five years, LED production will continue to expand, so, why production equipment market has peaked rebound? This is because in 2010 and 2011, a massive overinvestment. The main reason is that the Chinese government subsidies to the MOCVD equipment, do our best to invest in enterprises in order to ensure the market status. By 2010, only a few Chinese companies in the LED production equipment, but now have increased to 70. But I'm afraid that most companies are a flash in the pan, and estimates of the number of enterprises to survive and won't buy new equipment, but the failure of enterprises to increase productivity through acquisitions.